23/24 Everton Preview: Third time's the charm
With the new Premier League season arriving, Everton's focus remains avoiding another relegation battle
Saturday marks the latest Premier League campaign for Everton, who’ve twice dodged relegation to the Championship in dramatic fashion. May’s dramatic win over Bournemouth off Abdoulaye Doucoure’s foot represented relief, not celebration. So much went wrong last season, but a new season brings new aspirations. Fans dream of a season out of the reaper’s sights while towards a more stable future.
Is that feasible though?
Can Sean Dyche keep the ship on course?
For the first time in three seasons, Everton went through an offseason without questions at manager. Dyche, appointed in January after the club dismissed Frank Lampard, guided the Blues to 17th place and another season in the EPL.
Is a full season for Dyche enough to show sustained improvement though? For an answer, let’s examine his results at the end of last season. In 18 games as manager, Dyche accumulated 21 of Everton’s 36 points. That gave him a 1.17 points per game pace, a contrast to Lampard’s pitiful 0.88 PPG showing with fundamentally the same roster.
Using Dyche’s number as a baseline, over a full 38 game season Everton posts 44 points. Based on the most recent table, 44 was good enough for 12th place. It’s not top half, but it’s far better than scrapping for relegation.
This isn’t a guarantee that Dyche’s continue presence will shoot Everton up the table. Anyone following the EPL knows manager’s fates are a year-to-year proposition. Ask Graham Potter and Thomas Tuchel about that. Even considering that, Dyche’s tenure on Merseyside seems headed in the right direction. He’s a stark contrast to the vibes era under Lampard and the jerk era under Rafa Benitez. His persona is appealing to the Goodison faithful, a no-nonsense type who values hard work and effort. It’ll win the press conferences, but that only gets you so far in games.
Goals win games however, which brings us to…
Where are the goals coming from this year?
The question on every Evertonian’s mind is how the team will increase their goal output. Last season they scored 34 goals in 38 matches, second worst in the EPL. Put another way: all three relegation teams scored more goals than Everton last year. Yes, Everton did underperform their xG to the tune of 9 goals(45.2 was their xG number). Even if they hit that number however, they’d still be in the bottom half of goals scored. More goals have to appear, otherwise it’ll be year three of staring down demotion.
The obvious answer is a healthy Dominic Calvert-Lewin. With only 17 games and 15 starts last year, DCL had two goals and one assist. Getting him up to full fitness is crucial, something of which Dyche is aware. To that end, Calvert-Lewin isn’t in line to start Saturday’s opener against Fulham. How long it will take for Everton’s number nine to get healthy is unknown, but it must happen. The team isn’t the same without him.
Calvert-Lewin’s absence is exacerbated by Dwight McNeil’s absence. Last year’s leading scorer with seven goals injured his ankle ligaments and is out “weeks rather than days” per Dyche. That problem is furthered by the persistent belief that Demarai Gray wants out, potentially to Saturday’s opponent Fulham.
There’s a real chance that Everton will take the pitch Saturday featuring only two players who scored at least twice last year, Doucoure and Alex Iwobi. Toffee supporters have every right to be concerned about the team’s offense as it sits now, because it’s in bad shape.
Everton needs help, whether they get it internally or externally. Speaking of…
Where are the strikers promised this window?
The summer transfer window closes on September 1st, meaning Everton has exactly three weeks to secure attacking help. On loan Arnaut Danjuma is here, but there’s still a void up top. It’s not for lack of ideas, as Everton has been linked to several strikers. Getting them across the line however hasn’t happened. A brief history of players linked to a move this summer:
El Bilal Toure: Chose Atalanta over Everton
Allan Saint-Maximin: Ended up with Al-Ahli in the Saudi Pro Leagues
Kelechi Iheanacho: Remains with Leicester City
Boulaya Dia: Remains with Salernitana
Anthony Elanga: Chose Nottingham Forest over Everton
Ismailia Sarr: Ended up with Marseille
Moussa Dembele: Signed as a free agent with Al-Ettifaq
Viktor Gyokeres: Chose Sporting CP in Portugal over Everton
Beto: Remains with Udinese
Che Adams: Remains with Southampton
Some positive news on this front came Friday, with the announcement of Sporting CP’s Youssef Chermiti for a maximum of 15 million pounds. Wednesday, reports said that the Toffee had an offer accepted for PSG’s Hugo Ekitike and were awaiting the player’s decision. Leeds winger Willy Gnoto desires Everton, and the teams are working on an agreement.
Everton needs multiple options, whether they’re already rumored or not. It’s not just about now, but the future. This is a multiple year project, and adding pieces that helps the present and future is critical. Chermiti is a good start, but if Everton wants to assure safety more is needed.
Scoring goals isn’t the only issue though…
Preventing goals matters as well
The goal drought receives the headlines, but Everton’s defense also deserves scrutiny. Allowing 57 goals last year left them with the sixth worst goal differential in the league, and with an xGA of 65 they should have allowed more.
After much consternation, Jordan Pickford remains with a new contract and publicly declared satisfaction about remaining a Toffee. England’s number one remains a solid shot stopper and an elite distributor, but it’s not all about him.
The backline in front of Pickford is in flux. Gone is Yerry Mina, signing with Fiorentina after his contract expired. Seamus Coleman is back, though still recovering from a knee injury suffered at last season’s end. The ageless wonder Ashley Young has arrived, bringing depth to both fullback positions which needed them badly. Young center back Jarrad Branthwaite returned after a successful loan spell to PSV Eindhoven and winning the UEFA U-21 Championship with England this summer.
It leaves Dyche with decisions to make. Last year’s iron man James Tarkowski is a lock for one CB job, while a bevy of others look to join him. Nathan Patterson’s good preseason, combined with Coleman’s injury, should slot him into the right back job. Young and Vitali Mykolenko will likely battle over the left back spot. No matter who ends up where, those players have to support their keeper. Progress means putting more goals in the net on one end and keeping them out on the other.
Stability in center pitch
One place the defense is outstanding is the midfield. Amadou Onana has been a revelation, providing quality in a variety of ways but especially on defense. Per his scouting report on FBRef:
Combined with Idrissa Gana Gueye, who looks like this:
And you’ve got a pair of defensive stalwarts. James Garner is expected to get more opportunities after flashing in limited opportunities. Doucoure can play more advanced as seen post Dyche arrival, giving the midfield an attacking option. Iwobi remains a talisman, able to move possession forward wherever he is on the pitch. You’d like to see maybe one more player for depth’s sake, especially with Andre Gomes and Jean-Phillipe Gbamin both wanting to leave on permanent moves.
Despite the two levels around them in flux, Everton’s midfield is the club’s most positive unit. Year two of Onana and a full year of Garner could take it to the next level if properly nurtured. The mix of established talent along with growing youngsters is encouraging.
Reasonable expectations for 23/24
You’re forgiven if your optimism around Everton is minimal. The last two seasons have earned the club skepticism and mistrust among fans. The signings haven’t been enough, the manager’s office featured a revolving door, and the on-pitch results have been downright bad. This is a club that has to earn its fan’s trust back, expecting anything less is foolish and naive.
All that said, there’s enough to like that avoiding relegation doesn’t feel like a pipe dream. A full season under Dyche is an endeavor worth undertaking, and the team is making small strides in the right direction. If they can bring in more attackers before the window closes, the odds of finishing lower mid table increase.
There is a lurking shadow however, and it’s the same as last season. If things go really wrong, Everton could be adrift amid the relegation waters again. If that’s the case, then the questions will only intensify. If this club is trending towards the basement again come December, asking “What is the right course” will be natural. There will be no good answer if that’s the case.
For now as the season’s dawn is about to break into a new soccer morning, allow yourself a moment of optimism. There could be time for darkness, and if so it’ll arrive on its own time. Let the breath of a new season, new possibilities, and better times fill and enrich you. The EPL is back, and with it comes the teams we love playing the game we adore. That in itself is worth celebrating, regardless of what happens next.